Sikkim standoff is still boiling and the Indian Government has passed out a major decision which empowers the powers of Indian Army, letting it to directly procure critical weapons and military armoury platforms in ’emergency’ situations to maintain readiness to combat short-notice “intense” wars. Are we expecting a war with China?
India-China have been pricking each-other since decades now, and it is no new story but the recent dispute over a road at the tri-junction border has surely intensified tension at Indo-Chinese border. While the leaders of both countries indirectly or even directly keep warning each other, or militaries at the borders intensify, or the alliance with neighbouring countries and international super powers are strengthened, let’s break the ice and make a reality check of what can happen if war is triggered between India and China.
Here is what is most likely to happen if war is declared, logically – Military forces will be intensified, troops will be deployed, heavy armours and missiles will be kept closer to the borders on both sides, India and China will try to seek American-French-Israeli-Russian intelligence for a closer look at what the other country is up to, bilateral and military relations with neighbouring countries will be revived. Because of the Chinese military, its allies will alert their respective militaries including North Korea, which will force the militaries of Taiwan, Vietnam and South Korea to alert their armies. Not forgetting Pakistani army’s always ‘on-alert’ mode towards the Indian border.
This will make the US military camps in Japan, South Korea, the Persian Gulf, as well as in Guam and Diego Garcia to go on alert, because the declaration of Indo-Chinese war can mean an attack on the disputed islands in the South China Sea. Regardless of saying, North Korea will do something crazy, which will bother US, which will bother Russian intelligence. So satellites will watch India, China and Pakistan’s nuclear silos with an eagle eye. Reconnaissance planes will be sent around China, Taiwan, North Korea, India, Pakistan and Navies of all the countries residing in Arabian Sea will be elevated to an alert situation.
Mostly neutral countries like Russia and Israel will see this as an opportunity and will try to sell their military weapons to both sides covertly. Stock markets and real estate will be most affected in India and China and overall trade between both countries, which is huge, will fall down hard. This will mean sluggish business and most probably a contribution to already budging inflation.
Grabbing the opportunity of making masala headlines, the Indian news media will quickly pick all this up and people across India will start protesting against war; whereas, the restricted and limited coverage Chinese media will only leave Chinese citizens in a confusion box. But let’s not forget millions of Chinese citizens living abroad and also Hong Kong – they will too start the protest against war. Ah the common people’s love for peace, it is just adorable, it really is.. Looking to this, the UN Security Council will put in efforts to avert a war and advocate peace.
Within a week of declaration – most of us will understand that it makes very little sense for India to attack China, or China to attack India, other than those isolated border skirmishes. Amidst all this, we also forgot the biggest barrier or the biggest saviour from occurrence of war – the enormous Himalayan ranges. Neither of the two countries have ability to move many or any troops and military equipment beyond the great Himalayan ranges, including active anti-ballistic defence programs. So it is practically not possible to physically attack beyond Himalaya except the aerial attacks.
With just aerial attacks, offensive attack attempts will not be accomplished ‘effectively’. And let’s not forget those economic dependencies and millions-billions of trade deals between both countries. Haunted by the enormous damage caused by the freshly declared war, which is getting scarier each day, both countries will quickly call it off or clarify that they didn’t intend to start a full-scale war. So even if we are preparing for war, it is not likely to turn into a ‘war’. Theoretically (and logically). But then again this is just what my research and I have derived, which may be true or false. In the end, we never know.