After two major landslide victories for BJP – in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections and March 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections, even Opposition began to think that at this rate, BJP might have already won the battle of Lok Sabha Elections in 2019. But is it still true?
Under the watch of Narendra Modi, BJP is enjoying high political time and there are chances that if the ‘Modi-magic’ remained intact for three years since his governance, it might sustain till 2019 – winning a battle for BJP, again. In a nutshell, even today, there is still no leader with a pan-India acceptability and popularity who can take over Modi and ultimately the BJP in 2019. And with Nitish Kumar by their side, there is still no leader who can compete them – despite Rahul Gandhi’s persistent and pretty reasonable efforts of projecting himself as a wise, calm and articulate leader.
While this might seem unbeatable, Congress has another strategy that could crack down their chances in Election 2019. The strategy comes from wise former CM of Jammu and Kashmir – Omar Abdullah who thinks that BJP isn’t unbeatable if Congress’ strategy is moved from criticism to positivism. Because criticising Modi hasn’t worked so far, and it will not work in future. Spicing the political game, it seems like Modi himself has given away the ‘positive alternative’ to the Opposition – the slowing down economy which racks up with other national issues like intolerance and unemployment.
Demonetisation and GST woes are still haunting the economy of India and the GDP stats clearly paint a picture where the fastest growing economy is freely falling down, nearing rumble now. Amit Shah recently tried to downplay the economic fall by terming it as an outcome of ‘technical reasons’ but SBI Researchers recently clarified that the slowdown is not because of technical glitches and it is certainly not petering out in short-term. Justifying the SBI research – the fact that government is planning for a stimulus package to rescue economy, itself validates that the situation is critical and requires urgent steps even if they are too radical.
But it is doubtful of whether the Rs 50,000 Crore worth stimulus will work because a fiscal stimulus at the time of rising inflation and high current account deficit can aggravate the fall even more. It can even have an adverse impact on the near-term macroeconomic stability – and if that happens, it would perhaps prove to be a self-implied deathblow for the ruling party. The financial crisis, nation-wide economy slowdown, intolerance and job deficit are real problems for India, which possess the potential to hit NDA.
Six months since it seemed like ‘BJP has already won 2019’, situation have drastically changed and if the Opposition junks down these issues ideologically, it can gain a credible stand in the near elections. Because with real reasons, the critiques for BJP and Modi will sound sincerer and more convincing than mere political criticism. Especially after Rahul Gandhi’s rhetoric at US, the Opposition holds a major, major plank that can stumble even the undefeatable-seeming BJP. If the situation remains more or less the same, 2019 game will be no cakewalk for the ruling party, nor it will be for the Opposition – because nobody is invincible in politics, a rather hilarious game of thrones.