After a fractured mandate for Karnataka Assembly elections and a zillion episodes of political twists and turns, it is almost time for the final decision about who will form Karnataka government in this term. As per the Supreme Court’s order, a floor test will be conducted today, at 4 PM to determine whether the day-old BS Yeddyurappa government has enough support of MLAs to continue in government or not.

On one hand, the Supreme Court is held hearing for Congress-JD (S) combine’s plea challenging Karnataka Governor Vajubhai Vala’s decision to appoint KG Bopaiah as the pro tem Speaker to conduct the crucial floor test and turned down the plea – making Bopaiah to remain pro-tem Speaker. And on the other hand, 200 marshalls have been posted in Karnataka to maintain safety, law and order in the Karnataka assembly ahead of the floor test. The fate of one-day old Yeddyurappa government will be decided today at 4 PM when all MPs will put on their trust vote and decide whether the current government has the support of the requisite number of MLAs to continue, or not.

Currently, BJP is eight seats short of a majority of 112 while the Congress-JD(Secular) coalition claims to have the support of 116 members. Majority will be proven by a floor test that is to be conducted today evening, as per the Supreme Court’s clear-cut four-step instructions. If majority is questioned for the current government, the leader of the party which claims majority has to move a vote of confidence and prove majority among those present and voting. The Chief Minister has to resign if they fail to prove their majority in the house.

There are four strategies that BJP can use today evening: First, the 2014 Maharashtra model by which BJP won via voice vote despite being short of 22 MLAs. Second, Bring down half-way mark from 111 to 104 by reducing total strength of house by ensuring that 13 opposition MLAs abstain from voting to reduce house strength. Third, 2008 LS Trust Vote Model: Ensure that 13 Opposition MLAs don’t press the button. Four, the 1996 Vajpayee model where CM BSY gives a speech before trust vote and resigns. It is all just a game of number 8, pretty much like the IPL T20 matches, but here IPL would be “Indian Political League” where MLAs will be auctioned like cricketers – but only undercover, unlike the real IPL.

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