The million-dollar question – “who will win Karnataka assembly elections this year?”. The legitimate answer to this question can only be given on May 15, but we have opinion polls to suggest how people could possibly vote during the elections. And the opinion polls for Karnataka Assembly Election 2018 says it will be a neck-to-neck competition for the two rival parties.

While the southern Indian state of Karnataka is heading towards the assembly election – the opinion polls show that neither of the parties will have clear elusive majority. Of the 224-seat assembly of Karnataka, the opinion polls indicate that Congress is projected to get 91 seats with BJP finishing close with 89 and JD(S)-BSP expected to perform well with 40 seats. This means, if the opinion goes, the incumbent Congress party will face a loss of 31 seats and rival party BJP will have a gain of 49 seats – making both parties run short of the benchmark of 113 seats required to form the government with clear majority.

For BJP, the central region of Karnataka will prove to be massive inroad and might grab away 22 of the 35 seats of central Karnataka – instead of just 4 seats in 2013 elections. In Coastal Karnataka, the religious polarisation is an important factor which might help BJP win of 8 of the 21 seats. However, Greater Bengaluru region seems to be endorsing chief minister Siddaramaiah with Congress improving its seat tally from 15 to 17. Meanwhile, Old Mysore region will prove to be a JDS stronghold with its Vokkaliga vote base and is most likely to sweep away 25 out of 55 seats.

However, when the respondents asked about who their choice for Chief Minister was, more than 46% votes went to Siddaramaiah, Yeddyurappa polled about 32% and HDK got 17.63%. If the polls are to come true, neither CM Siddaramaiah nor Yeddyurappa will be in position to form government and will seek alliance with JD(S)-BSP alliance. The elections at Karnataka are scheduled to be conducted on May 12 while the counting will be done on May 15. The triangular contest between BJP, Congress and JDS is getting more interesting even as all three parties contend they will win.

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