The “Mood of the nation” survey polls by India Today-Karvy and ABP-CVoter suggests that if elections were held today, Narendra Modi-led NDA government would get another chance to form government, but it may fall short of crossing the majority mark of 273 in Lok Sabha – and the Third Front parties would prove to be kingmakers.
India is apparently heading for a fractured mandate, leaving out no party to be even close to reaching the magic figure of 273 in the upcoming Lok Sabha election, as suggested in two “Mood of the nation” polls with almost identical results. As per ABP-CVoter and India Today-Karvy survey, the NDA is predicted to score 233 and 237 seats, respectively; while UPA would settle for 166 and 167 seats respectively and the Third Front parties bagging about 130 to 140 seats in the survey.
In terms of regional survey, NDA will be reeling with 40 percent in North, but would be fared poorly across entire South with just 18 percent vote share. It will face a close competition in eastern states, but will emerge victorious in western states with higher margins. Both the survey polls shows a significant drop of about 100 seats for NDA, and a rise of about 106 seats for the UPA. And although NDA would still be the largest pre-poll alliance by a comfortable margin, it is nowhere close to the magic mark and will not have the sweeping victory like that in 2014.
As per the polls, since all parties including NDA would run short of majority, the “Others” are likely to play the role of kingmakers with a combined share of 32 percent. NDA or UPA, both will have to run for support from the Third Front, who would be the centre of the electoral victory in General Election 2019. If the polls are to be believed, India is heading towards a fractured mandate, an indication for the need of political resurrection, where even the voters have no clear choice.