The Indian Parliament will witness no-confidence vote today at 11 PM and the country’s coalition era is back after 15 years. While the BJP-led NDA government is likely to easily defeat the no-confidence motion passed by Opposition, the outcome will lay a blueprint of the possible coalition in Lok Sabha 2019.
After the TDP filed a no-confidence motion against NDA government on Friday, the Parliament of India is getting ready to debate over the most powerful weapon of Opposition to unseat an elected government – the no-confidence vote. This will be the 27th time in independent India’s political history that the no-confidence vote will be undergone. Most of the prominent Prime Ministers of the “coalition era” in India, including – Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Morarji Desai, Rajiv Gandhi, PV Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee underwent the test and all except Morarji Desai passed the test.
However, the number of no-confidence motions have acutely fallen down in last few years and this is the first time in 15 years that the motion will be used. Perhaps, the coalition politics is back as the Opposition sees it to be the only way to dethrone the Modi government. In the modern Indian politics, the NDA government will easily defeat the no-confidence motion with a clear majority in the House. Yet, India will closely watch the outcomes because it will be a key test for the new alliance among political parties for the upcoming Lok Sabha 2019 elections.
With the 2014 Modi wave receding and the early-polls showing that the BJP government could possibly fall short of a clear majority in 2019, the opposition parties have prompted for a grand alliance, all over again. With the no-confidence vote, what is to be keenly watched is the number of votes each side gets and which side has more cracks – the opposition or ruling coalition. However, the no-confidence votes are not a perfect yardstick for coalition politics, as it is not a single-jacket formula but rather a state-wise strategy; yet, it will outline the 2019 political picture.