Congress closed with 3-0 against BJP with victory in three heartland state assembly elections. The big question is, what does the results of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh say for Lok Sabha 2019?
Less than six months before the general elections, the results of assembly elections in five states are seen as a reflection of voters’ political mood, especially when three of these states are so-called “Hindi heartland”. The vote counting on Tuesday saw Congress clawing back to remaining in the political contention of India’s vote banks after almost half a decade long downfall. The wrestle in three states proved to be a hope for the diminishing Congress wave, and a reversal of BJP’s fortunes and winning streaks that could now see new ramifications on a national level.
Talking statistically, even after a 3-0 whitewash, the mappings of assembly segments onto the relevant parliamentary seats say that BJP is still likely to win 17 of 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh and 13 out of 25 in Rajasthan – while it would wipe out completely in Chhattisgarh with just 1 of 11 seats. But whether these mappings make sense or not has no confirmation because past experiences show that these are just a rough guide. And more or less, the mappings say that the latest assembly elections reflect in the parliamentary seats in most cases.
If the normal patterns keep up, the heartland results could prove to be a “hurtland” for BJP, and even as per the seemingly favourable mappings, BJP would bag 31 of 65 Lok Sabha seats, which is half compared to the 62 in 2014. Also, given the current outlook in Uttar Pradesh, it will be a challenge to repeat again. For now, all the incumbent party can do is embrace the mandate with humility and say that “victory and defeat are an integral part of life”. And whatsoever happened to the obvious references of “Congress-mukt Bharat”. The results are an epitome of politics, where nobody is a juggernaut and nobody is invincible.